Opening Day Chat
Opening Day is here. Ask me anything. Give me your predictions, hopes and fears. Tell me a stupid joke. Let's talk O's.
Here we are at last. Pete Alonso, Ryan Helsley, Taylor Ward, Shane Baz, Chris Bassitt and more will join many familiar faces to try to help this Orioles team leap from 75 wins back into the playoffs in just a year. Can they do it? Sure! Maybe. Most projection models see it as a little better than a coin flip.
FanGraphs projected wins: 83.6
FanGraphs playoff odds: 52.1%
On paper, this team should win (many) more games than last year's team did. But last year's team should also have won (many) more games than last year's team did.
Yearly Orioles projections from FanGraphs:
2024: 83.5 wins, 52.7% playoff odds (actual: 91 wins, yes playoffs)
2025: 82.9 wins, 45.3% playoff odds (actual: 75 wins, no playoffs)
2026: 83.6 wins, 52.2% playoff odds (actual: ???)
— Dan Sanchez (@oriolesreview.bsky.social) March 24, 2026 at 1:53 PM
The Orioles have been projected for about 83 wins for three straight years. They overperformed by 7 wins in 2024 and underperformed by 8 wins in 2025. Chance? Fate? Who really knows. But we're ready to do it all over again.
Let me know in the comments below what's on your mind as the season starts and I'll add some thoughts. Questions, thoughts, rants welcome, just don't be a dick.
Happy Opening Day!
