Rotation Target: Framber Valdez

This is the third in a series of posts about potential starting pitcher targets for the Orioles. See: Ranger Suárez, Dylan Cease

• Status: Free agent
• Age: 32
• '25 fWAR: 4.0
• 3-year fWAR: 12.1
• '25 Pitch modeling: 108 Stuff+, 99 Location+, 109 Pitching+
• Career: 3.36 ERA / 3.51 FIP / 3.34 xFIP, 20.5 fWAR

Overview

If it feels like Valdez has been around a lot longer than some of the other big name free agent starters, it's kind of true. Signed as an international free agent out of the Dominican at the comparably old age of 21, Valdez didn't even start pitching until age 16, when many of his countrymen were turning pro. But he caught the eye of an Astros organization that had Mike Elias as their scouting director and Eve Rosenbaum as their newly named manager of international scouting and was signed in March, 2015 for a paltry $10,000 bonus.

By the time Valdez finished his first cup of coffee in the big leagues, in 2018, Elias was on his way out to take over as general manager of the Orioles. Rosenbaum would follow a year later, joining the front office as Director of Baseball Development. Valdez had a mini-breakout in the shortened Covid year that followed, but it wouldn't be until 2022 that he would have his first truly "Framber" year: 200+ innings with a sub-3 ERA and 4.4 fWAR. It was the first in a four-year run in which Framber ranked second in MLB in innings pitched and 19th among qualified starters in ERA, leaving him 5th in overall fWAR.

Framber's combination of durability and effectiveness has placed him in the top echelon of major league starters over the last four years, even with modest north-star peripherals. He is 52nd in K% over that span, 62nd in BB% and 64th in K-BB%. But Valdez relies on a sinker, and sinker-ballers don't tend to rack up strikeouts, relying instead on avoiding damage by keeping the ball on the ground. And here, Valdez excels, with the 4th highest GB% in baseball to go along with a good enough foundation of strikeouts and walks to boast effective outcomes supported by a very strong 3.29 FIP.

Framber Valdez is one of the biggest success stories from a strong group of international amateurs signed by Elias and Rosenbaum, but they didn't stick around long enough to see him blossom. Could a reunion be in the works now, with the Orioles in need of an ace to bolster their playoff hopes and Valdez finally hitting free agency?

The good, the bad and the ugly

One of the only bad numbers on the back of Valdez's baseball card is his age. Only two starting pitchers in the last decade have signed a free agent contract for five years or more at age 32 or older. They are Blake Snell (2024) and Jacob deGrom (2022), and both signed for exactly 5 years.

As the season wound down and Valdez hit a relative rough stretch, it started to look like he might be in line for a 3 or 4 year deal with a high average annual value largely for this reason. But as pundits and prognosticators had time to sit back and look at the market, severely lacking in true aces, most major publications ended up projecting him for 5 years or more, with The Athletic's Tim Britton going as high as 7 years. Valdez's track record, backed up by strong peripherals and batted ball data, speaks for itself, but a contract that goes through age 38 is excessively risky for just about any pitcher.

There are some reasons for optimism, though. Framber is starting with a high stuff baseline of 106 Stuff+ since 2020 and 108 in 2025. Even though he doesn't strike out a ton of batters, his velocity is holding strong at 95-96, harder than he was throwing earlier in his career. Even though I'd expect clear decline as he enters and surpasses his mid-30s, he could still be reasonably effective toward the back of that contract. And while his locations aren't great, his fastball shape allows him to avoid barrels even on hard contact, while his curve is a legitimate whiff pitch. Add in a changeup that is effective against righties and the overall picture is a guy who is somewhere between "good enough" and "great" and just about everything that correlates with success.

And what of the stuff that's not in the numbers? Valdez has faced scrutiny over the years due to his behavior on and off the mound. Most of this seemed easy to write off as baseless criticism of a certain kind of pitcher who plays with emotion, even if he at times can let his emotion get the best of him. But then came a September incident in which he appeared to intentionally cross up his catcher César Salazar, nailing him in the chest with an unexpected sinker just two pitches after he gave up a grand slam after waiving off Salazar's motion to step off the mound.

Was this actually intentional? Valdez and the Astros would like you to believe it wasn't. Reasonable people can come to different conclusions. But it wasn't a good luck, not long after Framber got himself into some hot water by blaming the Astros defensive positioning in a July loss. There is some evidence that he was hurt by the Astros defense last year, you don't want your star pitcher airing out that frustration to the media. In the ensuing discourse, rumblings floated online of other makeup issues through the years, but they amount to rumors and questionable sourcing.

My take

Framber Valdez is the best starting pitcher on the free agent market. He's been a Top 5 starter by WAR since 2022, narrowly beating Dylan Cease with substantially better run prevention outcomes to back up the combo of peripherals and durability. While he doesn't strike out a ton of batters, he strikes out enough while not walking too many and getting a metric ton of ground balls. The arsenal, the stuff, the periphals and the results all suggest at least a #2 starter, someone the Orioles could plant at the top of their rotation alongside Kyle Bradish and feel good about riding into the playoffs in the near future.

That said, he's 32. He's arguably already in decline, with more to come. But he's actually been gaining velocity, his stuff is stable and his GB%, the key to all of this, is still elite with very modest decline over the last few years. He is a guy you can confidently sign for 4 or 5 years at $30 to $35 million per year, living with the risk of decline in the last year or two in favor of the impact he should provide up front. At 6 years or more, I'd start to look at other options. The washout risk after age 35 is just too high, and owing Valdez $30 million per year at ages 36-38, as some projections have suggested, could be a disaster for the mid-market Orioles.

But the real X-factor here is the makeup and character issues. Any big free agent the Orioles sign this season would be the only high-earning star on the roster. Are they prepared to bring in one that could significantly disrupt the chummy atmosphere in the clubhouse? This requires due diligence. If the truth is that Valdez is a fiery competitor who wears his emotions on his sleeve but ultimately wants to win, I have no problem with it. This is a team that could use some passion, and the chumminess did not help them get through horrid play at times last year.

But if there are more nefarious things going on behind the camera and inside the clubhouse, it could be a reason to turn to another option. Only those inside baseball, and maybe inside the Astros clubhouse specifically, know that for sure. Mike needs to use his connections to Valdez and the Astros to find out, because by the numbers alone Valdez could be the immediate ace the Orioles so desperately need.