Rotation Targets: Ranger Suárez

This is the first in a series of posts about potential starting pitcher targets for the Orioles.

• Status: Free agent
• Age: 30
• '25 fWAR: 4.0
• 3-year fWAR: 9.8
• '25 Pitch modeling: 96 Stuff+, 113 Location+, 107 Pitching+
• Career: 3.38 ERA / 3.21 FIP / 3.61 xFIP, 15.4 fWAR

Overview

Ranger Suárez, by most accounts, is not an ace. He has never boasted premier velocity (91-93 MPH), stuff (97 Stuff+) or swing-and-miss (22nd percentile Whiff%). But for the past five years, he has consistently demonstrated the ability to prevent runs as a crafty lefty with double-plus command of a deep arsenal and a knack for inducing weak contact, averaging just over 3 fWAR per season with a 3.25 ERA over that time.

Despite modest stuff and some durability concerns, which I'll get to later, he is one of the most likely starters on the market to receive a 5-year deal or longer. It's a testament to his ability, sure, but it's also a sign that the top of this year's free agent starter market is flawed.

Framber Valdez will be 32. Dylan Cease's ERA has been over 4.50 in two of the past three years. Zac Gallen is coming off an awful year. Michael King was hurt. Shane Bieber is still proving himself after Tommy John surgery. The list goes on.

But while Suárez might not fit the mold of a dominant front-line starter, he continues to chug along as a reliable, play-off caliber arm who just turned 30.

Concerns

As I mentioned, Suárez has not been the most durable starter despite his consistent performance. He has a history of back issues, which has led to missed starts in three of the last four years. In 2023, the only recent year in which he didn't deal with back issues, he missed the first six weeks of the season with an elbow strain. He seems to have put that elbow issue behind him, but the combination of injuries has prevented him from ever making 30 starts or hitting 160 innings in a season. Clubs will need to decide whether this pattern of injuries presents significant long-term concern, or if it's a factor that could lead to a good deal for a pitcher with a strong track record when healthy. Max Fried, after all, finally surpassed 30 starts and 175 innings pitched in the first year of his deal with the Yankees.

Suárez, of course, is no Fried. The Yankees could gamble 8 years and $218 million on Fried because of the elite upside warranted by his combination of command and stuff, backed by mid-90s velocity. That brings us to the second big concern with Suárez: his career velocity is below average, and worse, it's trending down.

On first glance, this chart is alarming. Like, holy-shit-this-guy-is-about-to-fall-off-a-cliff alarming. But don't worry, the precipitous drop between 2022 and 2025 is due in part to the introduction and gradual increase in use of a cutter, which gets included in his fastball grouping. Look just at his sinker — his primary fastball — and things get slightly less concerning.

Still, there's been a noticeable drop, from 92.8 MPH in 2023 to 90.1 MPH this year. That's not good. Let's look closer at the 2025 monthly split.

A noticeable dip in the summer months, including two straight months where his sinker averaged under 90 MPH. There wasn't any mid-season injury reported, though Suárez began the season on the IL with his regularly scheduled back injury. Perhaps it flared up again mid-season and he pitched through it? July was his worst month in terms of ERA (4.57) and xwOBA (a whopping .422).

It's difficult to separate the velocity loss from potential injuries, but whatever the cause, it's concerning. We know that velocity is one of the factors most strongly correlated with durability, and once guys drop below a certain threshold — the threshold Suárez is dancing with right now — they tend to decline rapidly. Suárez's increasing cutter usage helps, as it keeps bats off the fastball and can make the overall arsenal more effective. But any further dip in velocity will make it difficult for Suárez to continue his excellent run prevention, as his second half 4.40 ERA might suggest. Still, he maintained a FIP below 4 for every month in 2025, so maybe the concern is overblown.

Contract comps

According to MLBTR's contract tracker tool, there have been 20 free agent starters in the last 5 years between the age of 29 and 31 who received deals of 4 years or longer, and 11 who have received 5 years or longer. Two of them (Ohtani and Yamamoto) are outliers. Here are the rest:

Aaron Nola (7/172) and Carlos Rodon (6/162) represent Suárez's absolute ceiling, and I can only see him matching those contracts if the league sees the other options on the market as more flawed and clubs turn to him as the top choice. Eduardo Rodriguez's deal with the D'backs (4/80) probably represents his floor.

Ultimately, I think Suárez lands around Robbie Ray's 5/115 deal. Possibly a little lower on the AAV, or for 4 years with a higher AAV, if teams are scared off by the injuries and recent velo dip. But a 4-5 year deal with an average salary in the $22-24 million range feels right.

My take

I think Suárez would make a solid addition to any rotation — at least in the short term. The back injuries and velocity are legit concerns, but it does seem like Suárez should be able to continue performing like a playoff-caliber starter over the next 2-3 years, albeit more like a solid #2 than a true ace. I have significant concerns about the back-end of the deal, as further decline in velocity could ruin the whole profile. If he comes back sitting 92 next year I'd feel better about his chances of holding up into his mid-30s, but if 90 is the new baseline, things could get ugly in a hurry.

It comes down to risk tolerance, but if I ran the Orioles I'd probably be out at 5/115. I'd be more comfortable with that $23 million salary, or even a little more, over 4 years. I think I'd need to see vesting option, incentives, deferrals or some other creative arrangement to feel comfortable adding that 5th year. Someone will probably give it to him, and that's fine.

I'd be happy to land Suárez, but I think the Orioles in particular need to shoot higher in terms of stuff and upside if they're going to take on significant risk in the free agent starter market.